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Pašreiz BMWPower skatās 160 viesi un 6 reģistrēti lietotāji.
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Tēma: Notikumi pasaulē, EU/ASV,NATO u.tml.
| Autors | Ziņojums |
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| Kidd | | 02. Oct 2024, 14:46 |
#9801
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|  Kopš: 18. May 2009
Ziņojumi: 8193
Braucu ar: 400Zs
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02 Oct 2024, 11:41:15 @uldens1 rakstīja:
02 Oct 2024, 10:18:45 @Kidd rakstīja:
un pat ja iznesa 30 f-35?  Jeņķi piegādās jaunus nedēļas laikā. Tā tak jamo eksporta prece un vēl Izraēla - tur tak var neminēt, ka viss būs atpakaļ un moš pat dubultā 
tak neiznesa nevienu,ja ukraiņiem tik grūti iet ar krievu aviācijas iznešanu,kada ir varbūtība ka kazupisēji iznesa žīdiem!!!
tak hvz. to, gan jau, neuzzinās nekad. pēc video spriežot - tur labi pa to lidlauku atnāca. nav jau brīnums, ja kaut ko nonesa. Starp citu - ir viedoklis, kapēc tik maz upuru. tā sistēma arrow spējot noteikt trajektorijas un esot triekusi nost "bīstamās" raķetes. attiecīgi - esot 7 minūtes iepriekš zinājuši, ka tulīt atnāks pa lidlauku un evakuējušies. cik tur taisnības = hvz |  Offline | | |
| kkas | | 02. Oct 2024, 14:55 |
#9802
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|  Kopš: 22. Apr 2008
Ziņojumi: 9238
Braucu ar: zviedru ledusskapi
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02 Oct 2024, 14:46:26 @Kidd rakstīja:
02 Oct 2024, 11:41:15 @uldens1 rakstīja:
02 Oct 2024, 10:18:45 @Kidd rakstīja:
un pat ja iznesa 30 f-35? Jeņķi piegādās jaunus nedēļas laikā. Tā tak jamo eksporta prece un vēl Izraēla - tur tak var neminēt, ka viss būs atpakaļ un moš pat dubultā
tak neiznesa nevienu,ja ukraiņiem tik grūti iet ar krievu aviācijas iznešanu,kada ir varbūtība ka kazupisēji iznesa žīdiem!!!
tak hvz. to, gan jau, neuzzinās nekad. pēc video spriežot - tur labi pa to lidlauku atnāca. nav jau brīnums, ja kaut ko nonesa. Starp citu - ir viedoklis, kapēc tik maz upuru. tā sistēma arrow spējot noteikt trajektorijas un esot triekusi nost "bīstamās" raķetes. attiecīgi - esot 7 minūtes iepriekš zinājuši, ka tulīt atnāks pa lidlauku un evakuējušies. cik tur taisnības = hvz
balistiskajai raķetei jā, varot it kā noteikt trajektoriju. bet tas ir līdz brīdim, kad galviņa sadalās ntajās daļās. daļas vairs nav balistiskas. pašas kursu koriģē.
es kkur redzēju ka viņiem ir padsmit min laika, kamēr raķetes atlido no Irānas. | | Offline | | |
| uldens1 | | 02. Oct 2024, 15:04 |
#9803
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|  Kopš: 28. Feb 2008
Ziņojumi: 16058
Braucu ar:
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02 Oct 2024, 14:55:28 @kkas rakstīja:
balistiskajai raķetei jā, varot it kā noteikt trajektoriju. bet tas ir līdz brīdim, kad galviņa sadalās ntajās daļās. daļas vairs nav balistiskas. pašas kursu koriģē.
es kkur redzēju ka viņiem ir padsmit min laika, kamēr raķetes atlido no Irānas.
Galviņas sadalās dažām kodolraķetēm,kur daudz māņu mērķu,ne jau šitām lidojošam kanalizācijas trubām | | Offline | | |
RSAWorkshop  | | 02. Oct 2024, 15:10 |
#9804
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|  Kopš: 13. Dec 2014
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 6956
Braucu ar: G31/E53/E46/E39/E36/F31
| Pohuj, galvenais, ka pašlaik ziņas, ka 2 viegli ievainoti ar šķembām un vienu nosita ar cauruli
Ja tā un vēl nav nekāds lidlauks notīrīts ar F35, tad''izcils'' sasniegums
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RSAWorkshop-BMW remonts un apkope
24400993 | | Offline | | |
| Kidd | | 02. Oct 2024, 15:10 |
#9805
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| Kopš: 18. May 2009
Ziņojumi: 8193
Braucu ar: 400Zs
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02 Oct 2024, 14:55:28 @kkas rakstīja:
02 Oct 2024, 14:46:26 @Kidd rakstīja:
02 Oct 2024, 11:41:15 @uldens1 rakstīja:
02 Oct 2024, 10:18:45 @Kidd rakstīja:
un pat ja iznesa 30 f-35? Jeņķi piegādās jaunus nedēļas laikā. Tā tak jamo eksporta prece un vēl Izraēla - tur tak var neminēt, ka viss būs atpakaļ un moš pat dubultā
tak neiznesa nevienu,ja ukraiņiem tik grūti iet ar krievu aviācijas iznešanu,kada ir varbūtība ka kazupisēji iznesa žīdiem!!!
tak hvz. to, gan jau, neuzzinās nekad. pēc video spriežot - tur labi pa to lidlauku atnāca. nav jau brīnums, ja kaut ko nonesa. Starp citu - ir viedoklis, kapēc tik maz upuru. tā sistēma arrow spējot noteikt trajektorijas un esot triekusi nost "bīstamās" raķetes. attiecīgi - esot 7 minūtes iepriekš zinājuši, ka tulīt atnāks pa lidlauku un evakuējušies. cik tur taisnības = hvz
balistiskajai raķetei jā, varot it kā noteikt trajektoriju. bet tas ir līdz brīdim, kad galviņa sadalās ntajās daļās. daļas vairs nav balistiskas. pašas kursu koriģē.
es kkur redzēju ka viņiem ir padsmit min laika, kamēr raķetes atlido no Irānas.
tapēc jau es rakstu - hvz. ne es tur blakus biju, ne baigi pētijis esmu. ja raksta 7 minūtes, ta pieņemu, ka kamēr paceļas, kamēr nostājas uz kursa, kamēr saprot kur nokritīs = tā arī varētu būt 15 min->7 min. pēc video tak var redzēt, ka tur nekas nekur nesadalās, nekas nekur nemainās. vnk krīt no debesīm. da i tā santehnikas truba, kas uzkrita tam palestīnietim uz ķobja... | | Offline | | |
Lafter  | | 02. Oct 2024, 15:50 |
#9806
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|  Kopš: 23. Sep 2007
Ziņojumi: 28324
Braucu ar: wv
| Jûs nopietni diskutējat par kkadu teroristu dirsēju teikto?? 
Vatei kidd kāpēc tad netici?
Nav neviena lidmašīna iznîcināta un nav pat tolkam trāpījuši. Tas pamestais lidlauks neskaitās.
1) nosauc kaut vienu reizi kad žīdi ir slēpuši zaudējumus. Kaut vienu!
20 sasistas lopenes nenoslēpsi! Ir satelîtatēli arï.
2) Cik reizes dvieļi ir dirsuši?
3)Arî usa ierēc un pasaka kad tas ir sûds un diršana. Gaisa tankerus pat aizsūtîja, ja nu uzbrukums ilgāks. Lope es gaisā bija un tā ir standarta procedūra.
4) kaut vienu faktu pievediet sākumā?
Dieva dēł…
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| Kidd | | 02. Oct 2024, 15:52 |
#9807
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| Kopš: 18. May 2009
Ziņojumi: 8193
Braucu ar: 400Zs
| kur es esmu rakstījis, ka ticu? es rakstīju = pat, ja ir iznesti = pohuj. iedos vēl
P.S - ja par to tekstu ka nav brīnums, ja kaut ko nonesa = nevienā brīdī par ļopenēm nerakstīju. [ Šo ziņu laboja Kidd, 02 Oct 2024, 15:54:18 ] | | Offline | | |
| Lafter | | 02. Oct 2024, 15:52 |
#9808
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| Kopš: 23. Sep 2007
Ziņojumi: 28324
Braucu ar: wv
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02 Oct 2024, 14:46:26 @Kidd rakstīja:
02 Oct 2024, 11:41:15 @uldens1 rakstīja:
02 Oct 2024, 10:18:45 @Kidd rakstīja:
un pat ja iznesa 30 f-35? Jeņķi piegādās jaunus nedēļas laikā. Tā tak jamo eksporta prece un vēl Izraēla - tur tak var neminēt, ka viss būs atpakaļ un moš pat dubultā
tak neiznesa nevienu,ja ukraiņiem tik grūti iet ar krievu aviācijas iznešanu,kada ir varbūtība ka kazupisēji iznesa žīdiem!!!
tak hvz. to, gan jau, neuzzinās nekad. pēc video spriežot - tur labi pa to lidlauku atnāca. nav jau brīnums, ja kaut ko nonesa. Starp citu - ir viedoklis, kapēc tik maz upuru. tā sistēma arrow spējot noteikt trajektorijas un esot triekusi nost "bīstamās" raķetes. attiecīgi - esot 7 minūtes iepriekš zinājuši, ka tulīt atnāks pa lidlauku un evakuējušies. cik tur taisnības = hvz
kur video??? Ieliec linku. Tas ieliktais? Bieži esi redzejis civilo degvielas uzpildes staciju militārās bāzes vidû??
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| Kidd | | 02. Oct 2024, 15:57 |
#9809
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| Kopš: 18. May 2009
Ziņojumi: 8193
Braucu ar: 400Zs
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02 Oct 2024, 15:52:29 @Lafter rakstīja:
Bieži esi redzejis civilo degvielas uzpildes staciju militārās bāzes vidû??
da Tu neticēsi... Esmu gan. Arī McDonalds un Burgerkingu. un Steikhousu | | Offline | | |
| Lafter | | 02. Oct 2024, 16:05 |
#9810
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| Kopš: 23. Sep 2007
Ziņojumi: 28324
Braucu ar: wv
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02 Oct 2024, 15:57:26 @Kidd rakstīja:
02 Oct 2024, 15:52:29 @Lafter rakstīja:
Bieži esi redzejis civilo degvielas uzpildes staciju militārās bāzes vidû??
da Tu neticēsi... Esmu gan. Arī McDonalds un Burgerkingu. un Steikhousu
Es nerunāju par bāzes personālam paredzēto. Ādažos ari ir gan bārs/i, gan veikali utt. Bet Tu tur dzert nevari. Un vēl Izraēlā! Karavīrs tāds filmē un laiž live uzbrukumu bāzei?
Šis viss ir apmēram, kā tērēt laiku un diskutēt par nāriñu eksistenci.
Pamēģini iebraukt Àdažu bàzē. Pagājušo gad pie vārtiem piebraucot pakał čomam, jau uz mani visi lupīja. Distance no bomja 30m lūdzu un izkāp no auto sērija. Pie žīdiem ir 5x stingrāk.[ Šo ziņu laboja Lafter, 02 Oct 2024, 16:19:46 ]
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| Samsasi | | 02. Oct 2024, 16:44 |
#9811
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|  Kopš: 01. Nov 2014
Ziņojumi: 4338
Braucu ar:
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02 Oct 2024, 14:43:27 @Kidd rakstīja:
daži analītiķi raksta, ka tas ir bijis ar nodomu nolikt jauno irānas prezi pie vietas - tipa roku roku mazgā. Neesot nemaz zinājis kur nu vēl akceptējis. tas KSIR vai kā tur jamo Latviski sauc, ir militārs grupējums. valsts valstī. liek svimpi preža pavēlēm, ja ir vēlme. daži uzskatot par teroristisku organizāciju. tā kā hvz kas un kā. bet no 200+ raķetēm 1 notriektā uzkrīt uz galvas - i to palsetīnietim.. saprātīgs munīcijas izlietojums..
jā taisnība, ko saka slaveni jūtu eri, tad tas uzbrukums ir bijis pilnīgs apkaunojums irānai. 181 raķete un viens dohlijs gāžas makaks | | Offline | | |
| Kidd | | 02. Oct 2024, 17:33 |
#9812
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| Kopš: 18. May 2009
Ziņojumi: 8193
Braucu ar: 400Zs
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02 Oct 2024, 16:05:03 @Lafter rakstīja:
02 Oct 2024, 15:57:26 @Kidd rakstīja:
02 Oct 2024, 15:52:29 @Lafter rakstīja:
Bieži esi redzejis civilo degvielas uzpildes staciju militārās bāzes vidû??
da Tu neticēsi... Esmu gan. Arī McDonalds un Burgerkingu. un Steikhousu
Es nerunāju par bāzes personālam paredzēto. Ādažos ari ir gan bārs/i, gan veikali utt. Bet Tu tur dzert nevari.
Pamēģini iebraukt Àdažu bàzē. Pagājušo gad pie vārtiem piebraucot pakał čomam, jau uz mani visi lupīja. Distance no bomja 30m lūdzu un izkāp no auto sērija. Pie žīdiem ir 5x stingrāk.
Rīt atbildēšu, esmu pie stūres un vairs powerĩ nebūšu. Cik ārvalstu militārajās båzẽs esi bijis? Tu man uzdevi jautājumu - es Tev atbildēju precīzi. Nevajag interpretēt manus vārdus pa savam. Pajautāji vai esmu redzējis- atbildēju. Un par kuru video Tu runā man vēl joprojām nav sapratnes[ Šo ziņu laboja Kidd, 02 Oct 2024, 17:34:36 ] | | Offline | | |
| Lafter | | 02. Oct 2024, 17:56 |
#9813
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| Kopš: 23. Sep 2007
Ziņojumi: 28324
Braucu ar: wv
| Es nerunāju kuram tētis krutāks.
Bet par loģisko domāšanu un spēju saskaitît 2+2=4
Nē- Tev nav sapratnes.
Ja tev pazīstams ir sēdējis tankà- Tu nēsi automātiski tankists. Ja esi redzējis lidmašīnu- nēsi automātiski pilots. Vai kodolieroču speciàlists kurš zin kas spràgs un kur.
Utt. Man nav sapratnes un Tev nav sapratnes. Tik vienkàrši. Taču ir loģika, ir fakti un ir muļķības.
Es runāju par laika tērēšanu muļķībàm. Es par to runāju.
Izlēdz bērnudàrzu. Es jau atceros Tavas garantētàs slavas dziesmas abramsam- pastāsti to cilvēkiem, kas ar viņu Ukrainā karo. Jà, tev radinieks ir sēdējis tankā. To mēs visi zinam.
Tajā video blec blakus daudzstāvene- iela, autobusi, automašīnas. Visur cilvēki civilajā.
Ciks žîdu armijas bàzēs esi bijis? Sàksim ar to??
Kāda starpîba kam tētis krutàks. Fakti runà par to, ka Tev diemžèl ne visai nojausma ir. Bez aizvainojumiem un citām lietām.. sausa fakta konstatācija. Es atsaucos uz ticamiem avotiem, citēju.
Kāpēc tad krieviem netici? Nu viñi dirš mazāk par dvieļiem. Tas ir fakts! Kāds sakars Tavām vizîtēm - atvērtajās dienās usa armijas bāzē, ar Izraēlu. Es, ja esmu bijis zoodàrzà automātiski nekļūstu par dzīvnieku pazinēju, ieskaitot visas viñu kopšanas nianses. Tā salīdzinot. Loģika un fakti. Es nesaku- Tev nav taisnība. Pieved ticamu avotu vai faktu. Tas arī viss.
Nevis- viss kas nav usa ir sūds. Nekas nespràgst. Nelido. Taču paralēli tici teroristu organizācijai, kura dirš nepārtraukti.
Taču vate tikai dirš.. kur tajā visā ir kāda loģika?
Nevis apgalvoju, ko viena tante teica.   [ Šo ziņu laboja Lafter, 02 Oct 2024, 18:03:55 ]
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| bum_bumz | | 02. Oct 2024, 18:20 |
#9814
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| Kopš: 05. Jan 2006
Ziņojumi: 6665
Braucu ar: E34
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02 Oct 2024, 15:10:16 @RSAWorkshop rakstīja:
Pohuj, galvenais, ka pašlaik ziņas, ka 2 viegli ievainoti ar šķembām un vienu nosita ar cauruli
Ja tā un vēl nav nekāds lidlauks notīrīts ar F35, tad''izcils'' sasniegums
Berlīnē bija daudz ātrā tempā savākušies dvieļi un svinēja. Var iedomāties, cik pasīvie vēl atrodas ES.
Cik izmaksā žīdiem tādu kanalizācijas trubu notriekt. x5, x10 ? | | Offline | | |
| Lafter | | 02. Oct 2024, 18:30 |
#9815
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| Kopš: 23. Sep 2007
Ziņojumi: 28324
Braucu ar: wv
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02 Oct 2024, 18:20:55 @bum_bumz rakstīja:
02 Oct 2024, 15:10:16 @RSAWorkshop rakstīja:
Pohuj, galvenais, ka pašlaik ziņas, ka 2 viegli ievainoti ar šķembām un vienu nosita ar cauruli
Ja tā un vēl nav nekāds lidlauks notīrīts ar F35, tad''izcils'' sasniegums
Berlīnē bija daudz ātrā tempā savākušies dvieļi un svinēja. Var iedomāties, cik pasīvie vēl atrodas ES.
Cik izmaksā žīdiem tādu kanalizācijas trubu notriekt. x5, x10 ?
Ņemot vērà, kad daļu notrieca kosmosà var teikt! (Starp citu Izraēla dotajā brīdī ir vienīgā valsts pasaulē, kas spējusi ko tādu paveikt sistemātiski. Ja to vienu reizi varēja norakstīt uz nejaušību. Tad šo nē  )
Es domāju- pipec kosmosu….
Un Latvijai ieteiktu ar žîdiem sākt bazarēt par normālas pretgaisa sistēmas iepirkumu. Šeit laikam pat sūrākajam skeptiķim pretargumentu par to, kad žīdu pretgaisa aizsardzības sistēmas ir tālu priekšà pàrējām nav.[ Šo ziņu laboja Lafter, 02 Oct 2024, 18:31:16 ]
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| Lafter | | 02. Oct 2024, 18:34 |
#9816
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| Kopš: 23. Sep 2007
Ziņojumi: 28324
Braucu ar: wv
| P.s
Весьма уважаемый мною азербайджанский военный эксперт Агиль Рустамзаде написал: “к информации в СМИ о том ,что в ходе иранского удара было поражено 20 истребителей F-35 отношусь с долей скептицизма”. Ну и дальше объясняет почему, мол, протокол “вывод из под удара”, всех поднимают в воздух и тому подобное. Так оно, кстати, и было - летчики за всем этим фейерверком наблюдали с большой высоты, кроме тех, кто в этот момент окучивал Ливан.
Все-таки Агиль - интеллигентный человек, офицер, летчик, поэтому “с долей скептицизма”. А мы люди простые, академиев не кончали, потому и выразимся проще - пиздят иранцы на голубом глазу. Нарушая, кстати, первейшее правило пропагандонов: Когда врешь про числа, они не должны быть круглыми. Не 20 F-35 “уничтожили”, а, скажем, 17 или 21. Так выглядит достовернее. Но поскольку они двоечники, то поэтому все их сообщения и смотрятся вот так - смешно. В арабской прессе - хохот и глумление. Потратить 300 млн. долларов, чтобы убить одного человека. И тот оказался палестинцем из Сектора Газа.
Auslanders
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| Lafter | | 02. Oct 2024, 18:55 |
#9817
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| Kopš: 23. Sep 2007
Ziņojumi: 28324
Braucu ar: wv
| Pieejams vispārējais drošības protokols. Bez niansēm visām USA armijas bāzēm
Person can walk or drive up to the gate and ask to be let onto a base. Be sure to have your American ID. They will call the person you're visiting and they will sign you onto the post. Depending on local regulation, you may have to be pre-registered or even pre-cleared. Utt serija ar punktiem. Tu nevari iet un nākt kad gribi! Viss, kas ir iekšà- ir personālam.
Man pietiek ar oficiālo tekstu un mani šeit neviens nepārliecinās par pretējo
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| Lafter | | 02. Oct 2024, 21:11 |
#9818
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| Kopš: 23. Sep 2007
Ziņojumi: 28324
Braucu ar: wv
| A Wider War in the Middle East, From Hamas to Hezbollah and Now Iran The main questions now are how much the conflict will escalate and whether the United States will get more directly involved in the defense of Israel.
The long-feared “wider war” in the Middle East is here.
For the last 360 days, since the images of the slaughter of about 1,200 people in Israel last Oct. 7 flashed around the world, President Biden has warned at every turn against allowing a terrorist attack by Hamas to spread into a conflict with Iran’s other proxy force, Hezbollah, and ultimately with Iran itself.
Now, after Israel assassinated the Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah, and began a ground invasion of Lebanon, and after Iran retaliated on Tuesday by launching nearly 200 missiles at Israel, it has turned into one of the region’s most dangerous moments since the Arab-Israeli War of 1967.
The main questions now are how much the conflict might intensify, and whether the United States’s own forces will get more directly involved.
The past few days may prove to have been a turning point. Since Israel killed Mr. Nasrallah on Friday, the Biden administration has been shifting from cautioning against a wider war to trying to manage it. Officials have defended Israel’s right to strike back at Iran, but are advising against direct attacks on its nuclear facilities that could tip the conflict out of control.
This is the spiral that Mr. Biden has cautioned against repeatedly, but has not been able to stop, even with 40,000 American forces in the region.
“From Israel’s perspective, we have been in a regional war since Oct. 7, and that war is now an all-out war,” said Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, a historian and one of the country’s more hawkish diplomats. “We are in a war for our national survival, period.” Winning over the next few weeks, he said, is a “duty” for a nation “created in the aftermath of the Holocaust.”
The unknown is how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel will interpret that existential mission as he weighs how, not whether, to strike back at Iran.
Mr. Biden’s warnings started early, on his visit to Israel less than two weeks after Oct. 7, to show solidarity after one of the most gruesome terrorist attacks of modern times.
That was before Israel obliterated Gaza from above and sent its military in on the ground, against Mr. Biden’s advice in a series of heated conversations with Mr. Netanyahu. It was before Israel booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah that exploded across Lebanon, and before Mr. Netanyahu approved the plan to kill Mr. Nasrallah and systematically decapitate much of the Hezbollah leadership.
It was before the administration hinted last week that Israel had agreed to join a 21-day cease-fire, only to be defied, again, by Mr. Netanyahu, who then turned around and authorized the strikes into Lebanon.
To Mr. Biden’s critics on the right, this is all the result of American hesitance, his unwillingness to back Israel unconditionally and his understandable tendency to nuance every promise of aid with a warning not to make the mistakes the United States made after the Sept. 11 attacks.
To his critics on the left, what has happened in the past 10 days is another example of Mr. Biden’s failure to make use of American leverage over Israel, including the threat of withholding American weapons after more than 41,000 people have died in Gaza. While several thousand of those killed were almost certainly Hamas leaders or fighters, a vast majority were civilians.
To many Israelis, this escalation was inevitable, another chapter in a struggle for survival that began with the nation’s creation in 1948.
Mr. Netanyahu clearly has America’s blessing to retaliate against Iran. At the White House on Tuesday, Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, said the Iranian attack had been “defeated and ineffective,” largely because of the coordinated efforts of American and Israeli forces, who had spent months planning how to intercept the incoming missiles. “We have made clear that there will be consequences — severe consequences — for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case,” Mr. Sullivan told reporters.
Mr. Sullivan said the White House was consulting extensively with Israel, including with the prime minister’s office, to formulate the appropriate response. He emphasized the degree of communication, leaving unsaid the obvious: Mr. Biden and Mr. Netanyahu barely talked as Israel took the fight to Lebanon, planned the Nasrallah operation and the ground invasion.
But once Iran, a lethal threat to Israel with military powers that Hamas and Hezbollah can only aspire to, directly entered the fray, America’s tone and strategy changed — and so has Israel’s.
The behind-the-scenes negotiations now boil down to Mr. Netanyahu’s intent. Will he send another message to Iran about what Israel could do in the future, as he did in April when he aimed at military facilities in the holy city of Isfahan? Will he take out oil production facilities and ports?
Or will he aim directly for the facilities he has threatened to strike for years, starting with the underground Natanz facility where Iran is enriching uranium to near-bomb grade?
American officials believe they can persuade Mr. Netanyahu to make his point without setting off a full-blown war. But they concede that the Israeli prime minister may see the next five weeks until the American presidential election as a ripe moment to try to set that program back by years. After all, former President Donald J. Trump would not complain about a major attack on Iran’s military infrastructure, and Democrats cannot afford to be accused of restraining Israel after Tuesday’s missile attack.
“Israel will do its best to be disproportionate,” Gen. Wesley K. Clark, a former supreme allied commander of NATO, said on CNN on Tuesday. White House officials take the opposite view: Mr. Netanyahu, they say, cannot afford to be anything but proportionate.
This new era runs many risks. There is the risk that Iran, frustrated by the failure of its missile force to break through Israeli and American weapons, will convince itself that it is finally time to race for a nuclear weapon, viewing that risky move as the only way to hold off an adversary who has penetrated iPhones and pagers and computer systems. There is the risk that despite the election of a moderate-sounding new Iranian president, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps will win the country’s internal arguments and double down on its missile programs and agents of influence.
“A full-scale war, or even a more limited one, could be devastating for Lebanon, Israel, and the region,” said Jonathan Panikoff, the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. “But from it, unexpected opportunities will also come — to undermine Iranian malign influence in the region, for example, by actively impeding its efforts to reconstitute Hezbollah. And a new administration should be prepared to take advantage of them.”
That is what old wars and hot wars do. They create new power dynamics, vacuums to be filled.
But there remains the danger that wider wars, once begun, take years to put back in the box. And the presence of nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and an instinct to escalate creates a particularly toxic brew.
David E. Sanger covers the Biden administration and national security. He has been a Times journalist for more than four decades and has written several books on challenges to American national security. More about David E. Sanger
In Iran, Military Commanders Win Debate, and Israel Is Hit The barrage of missile fire came after much debate among Iranian leaders, officials there say.
After days of sharp debate at the top levels of government, Iran’s senior military commanders prevailed, and almost 200 ballistic missiles were sent speeding toward the heart of Israel.
The direct military strike on Tuesday came after senior military commanders of the Revolutionary Guards Corps convinced the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that it was the only course of action if Iran wanted to appear strong, according to three Iranian officials.
During the surprise attack, Iran launched about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, the Israeli military said. Some landed, but most were intercepted, Israel said.
But the Iranian military has also prepared hundreds of missiles to launch from western borders should Israel or its top ally, the United States, strike back, two members of the Revolutionary Guards familiar with the planning said.
“If the Zionist regime reacts to Iran’s operation it will face more fierce attacks,” the Revolutionary Guards said in a statement.
The statement said the missiles had been launched to retaliate for Israel’s assassination last week of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group. Mr. Nasrallah was the most powerful figure in Iran’s “axis of resistance” — how it refers to its regional alliance of militants — and a close confidant of Mr. Khamenei.
The attack was also intended to avenge the recent assassinations of the political leader of Hamas, the Gaza Strip militant group, and of a top Iranian commander who was with Mr. Nasrallah at the time, the statement said.
Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, had been among those urging restraint, but on Tuesday he said the missile strike was a legitimate act of self-defense. He warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel that “Iran is not seeking war but it will stand firmly against any threats.”
He added: “This is only a small glimpse of our powers. Do not enter into a war with Iran.”
For nearly a year, since the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel, Hezbollah and Israel have been embroiled in tit-for-tat attacks. The hostilities started after the Lebanese militants began launching rockets across the border in a show of support for Hamas. In recent days, as Israel intensified its assault on Hezbollah, it was unclear how — or if — Iran, its patron, would respond.
To some analysts, early comments from Iranian leaders, including the supreme leader, suggested that it might not do so, at least directly, lest it find itself in a full-scale war with Israel.
Privately, Mr. Pezeshkian was urging caution, Iranian officials said, warning that Israel was trying to ensnare Iran into a wider conflict. And publicly, the new president was sounding a new tone. Just days before Mr. Nasrallah was assassinated, he had spoken before the United Nations of his desire to defuse tensions.
Iranian conservatives attacked the president and the government in a harsh campaign on social media and Iranian media, saying their calls for restraint were tantamount to treason.
Tuesday’s ballistic missile assault on Israel made clear which side of the debate had won, at least for the moment.
Iran’s senior military commanders had concluded that it was essential to establish deterrence against Israel — and quickly — to turn or at least slow the tide of its onslaught on Hezbollah. Still more important, they argued, Iran needed to act to prevent Israel from turning its attention toward Tehran.
The missiles were launched from Revolutionary Guards aerospace bases in Karaj, Kermanshah and the province of Azerbaijan, the Iranian officials said. They asked that their names not be published because they were not authorized to speak on the record.
The Iranians also wanted to restore credibility with members of the “axis of resistance,” and reverse any perception that Iran or its regional allies were weak.
Ali Vaez, Iran director for the International Crisis Group, said before the missile strike that in Iran, the consensus had moved toward responding to Israel “in order to kill the momentum that Israel has been able to gain for the past few days.”
But the decision could backfire, he said.
“A unilateral Iranian response is still extremely risky because it would provide justification for Israel to strike back on Iran now that it’s much exposed because Hezbollah is on its knees,” Mr. Vaez said. “If Iranians strike Israel it indicates that they calculated the cost of inaction outweighs the risks of taking action against Israel.”
A senior aide to Mr. Pezeshkian said in a telephone interview before the missile attack that whatever the president’s private reservations about war with Israel, he would publicly support any decision Mr. Khamenei made — as he did on Tuesday.
Iran’s shift in strategy, officials said, stemmed from a reckoning among its leaders, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
They decided that Iran had miscalculated by not responding to the killing of the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in July, and the more recent killing of the top Iranian commander, Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan.
The restraint, they believed, had been misunderstood as weakness. Mr. Araghchi has told other officials that western countries had duped Iran when they asked it to exercise restraint and allow for a cease-fire to be negotiated in Gaza, the three officials said.
Mr. Khamenei will lead the Friday Prayer in Tehran this week and deliver a sermon that is expected to set the tone for what will come next, Iranian media reported. Mr. Khamenei usually leads the Friday Prayer only in extraordinary circumstances tied to national security. His last was in 2020 in the aftermath of the U.S. assassination of Qassim Suleimani, a top general revered by Iranians.
After the strikes on Israel, supporters of the government chanted praises to God and posted messages on social media. Crowds gathered outside Tehran University waving Iranian and Palestinian flags and holding signs. “The time for revenge has arrived,” some read, state television reported.
Hamidreza Alimi, one conservative supporter of the government, offered an argument for the missile strike on social media.
“Sometimes you have to go to war to establish peace, you have to fight to have peace of mind,” he said.
Farnaz Fassihi is the United Nations bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of the organization, and also covers Iran and the shadow war between Iran and Israel. She is based in New York. More about Farnaz Fassihi
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| CP17 | | 02. Oct 2024, 21:19 |
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