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Lafter  | | 25. Jul 2024, 22:59 |
#9421
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|  Kopš: 23. Sep 2007
Ziņojumi: 27887
Braucu ar: wv
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Paladziņu 
Vice President Kamala Harris begins a 103-day sprint for the presidency in a virtual tie with former President Donald J. Trump, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, as her fresh candidacy was quickly reuniting a Democratic Party that had been deeply fractured over President Biden.
Just days after the president abandoned his campaign under pressure from party leaders, the poll showed Democrats rallying behind Ms. Harris as the presumptive nominee, with only 14 percent saying they would prefer another option. An overwhelming 70 percent of Democratic voters said they wanted the party to speedily consolidate behind her rather than engage in a more competitive and drawn-out process.
Her swift reassembling of the Democratic coalition appeared to help narrow Mr. Trump’s significant advantage over Mr. Biden of only a few weeks ago. Ms. Harris was receiving 93 percent support from Democrats, the same share that Mr. Trump was getting from Republicans.
Overall, Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters in a head-to-head match. That is a marked improvement for Democrats when compared to the Times/Siena poll in early July that showed Mr. Biden behind by six percentage points, in the aftermath of the poor debate performance that eventually drove him from the race. Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris 48 percent to 46 percent among registered voters. He had led among registered voters by nine percentage points over Mr. Biden in the post-debate poll.
The survey provides a snapshot of the presidential race in the middle of one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in modern American history. Democrats suddenly have a new nominee. And, less than two weeks after Mr. Trump survived an assassination attempt, his favorability rating rose to the highest level it has ever been in a national New York Times survey.
In some ways, the poll showed a reset to where the race was before Mr. Biden imploded on a debate stage in Atlanta: months of a narrow but steady Trump edge in the national polling averages. But in other ways, the new poll provided intriguing hints at how a Harris candidacy could remake the political coalitions and map that will determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
Ms. Harris was faring better among groups that Mr. Biden had been the weakest in, especially younger voters and nonwhite voters. At the same time, some Democrats fear she might not retain the same strengths that Mr. Biden has had among older voters, for whom the poll does show some erosion of Democratic support. The poll showed Ms. Harris garnering about 60 percent support from voters under 30 and Hispanic voters, groups Mr. Biden had consistently struggled with. Among voters under 45, Ms. Harris was ahead by 10 percentage points, less than three weeks after Mr. Trump had held a narrow edge with that group over Mr. Biden. Because the survey was of voters nationwide, the impact of Ms. Harris’s candidacy in particular battleground states was not immediately clear. But a Democratic candidate with greater appeal to younger and more diverse voters could put renewed focus on the Sun Belt states of Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, which had been threatening to slip off the swing-state map for Mr. Biden.
Ms. Harris has emerged as the Democratic Party’s expected nominee after a tumultuous few weeks. Mr. Biden stepped aside on Sunday, following a month of drawn-out questions about his mental faculties following a poor debate performance at the end of June. In the interim, Mr. Trump escaped an assassination attempt, named Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate and formally accepted his party’s nomination at the Republican National Convention. Ms. Harris is on a glide path toward next month’s Democratic convention as she seeks to become the first woman, first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to serve as an American president.
“Her being president or even being in the running is very important just for history,” said Summer Nesbitt, a 27-year-old school tutor near Detroit who supports the vice president. But Ms. Nesbitt, who is Black, added that she found some of Ms. Harris’s explicit appeals to Black voters a turnoff. “I don’t think that you have to try to pretend to be more down or be more Black just so you can get the Black vote. Just be yourself.” Voters are more tuned into the race. Just before the June debate, only 48 percent of voters said they were paying a lot of attention to the presidential campaign. That figure now stands at 64 percent, though the interest of independents continues to lag behind that of Democrats and Republicans.
The national mood remains bleak, but noticeably less so, with 61 percent seeing the country headed in the wrong direction, which is lower than in recent months. Ms. Harris faces some structural challenges as November approaches. She is the sitting vice president at a time when 75 percent of voters rated the nation’s economic conditions as “fair” or “poor.” And significantly more voters see Mr. Trump as a strong leader than those who say the same of Ms. Harris.
The country’s view of Ms. Harris has also brightened, with her favorable rating rising by 10 percentage points since February. Ms. Harris enters the campaign with a favorable rating of 46 percent, better than Mr. Biden’s, but still behind Mr. Trump’s.
Views of all three — Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris — split dramatically along gender lines. For the most part, men like Mr. Trump while women don’t. Women like Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris, while men don’t Mr. Trump’s favorable rating ticked up to 48 percent. This comes not long after the indelible images of him rising to his feet after an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally, pumping his fist in the air as blood streaked across his face, shouting, “Fight! Fight! Fight!”
“Honestly the way he handled it after the fact, the way he pretty much stood up in defiance of what happened, kind of gave me that sense of pride that I hadn’t felt when it came to our country in a while,” said Eddie Otzoy, a 29-year-old contractor in Los Angeles, who had voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Mr. Biden in 2020, but is now backing Mr. Trump. “Once the assassination attempt happened, it made me feel like they wanted to shut him up for a reason.”
Nearly 90 percent of voters said they approved of Mr. Biden’s decision to exit the race, a view shared by Democrats, Republicans and independents alike.
Perhaps as a result, Ms. Harris has almost instantly united the party behind her, to a far greater degree than Mr. Biden had been able to in the last two years. Nearly four in five Democrats or voters who lean toward the Democratic Party said they would like to nominate her. In contrast, only 48 percent of Democrats had said they wanted Mr. Biden as the nominee just three weeks ago.
A majority of Democrats said they felt enthusiastic about Ms. Harris as the nominee, with only 10 percent dissatisfied or angry.
“It would be a larger setback for the Democrats if they try to find someone else to try to fill in,” said Michael Newman, a 59-year-old contractor in Arlington, Texas, who is supporting Ms. Harris. “She has a pretty good insight on the goals that Biden was working on.”
Mr. Biden’s decision not to seek re-election — “I revere this office, but I love my country more,” he said in a national address on Wednesday evening — has resulted in a sharp spike in his favorability rating. The 7-point jump in his favorable rating after three of the most brutal weeks of his presidency — as party leaders questioned his mental competence and fitness — suggested that voter frustration with Mr. Biden may have been based not just on how he was governing but the fact that the 81-year-old president was seeking a second term.
Mr. Biden’s 43 percent favorability rating was his best showing since 2022.
In a multicandidate race, less than a single percentage point separated Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris, with Ms. Harris at 44 percent and Mr. Trump at 43 percent after rounding.
The independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s share of the vote continues to drop, hitting just 5 percent of likely voters in the new survey. He was the only third-party candidate above 1 percent.
Among Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump’s greatest strengths in the poll were that voters saw them as intelligent and having the right temperament to handle the job. Ms. Harris gets slightly higher marks for her smarts; 66 percent of voters say “intelligent” describes her well, compared with 59 percent for Mr. Trump.
Neither candidate holds an edge on the ability to unify the country, a sign that perhaps, in this era of deep political polarization, few believe national unity is even possible. Here are the key things to know about this Times/Siena poll:
We spoke with 1,142 registered voters across the country from July 22 to 24, 2024.
Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. About 96 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll. You can see the exact questions that were asked and the order in which they were asked here.
Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, we placed more than 140,000 calls to nearly 54,000 voters.
To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the results and methodology page, under “Composition of the Sample.”
The poll’s margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.
You can see full results and a detailed methodology here. If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.
Shane Goldmacher is a national political correspondent, covering the 2024 campaign and the major developments, trends and forces shaping American politics. He can be reached at [email protected]. More about Shane Goldmacher
Ruth Igielnik is a Times polling editor who conducts polls and analyzes and reports on the results. More about Ruth Igielnik
Camille Baker is a news assistant working for The Times’s Data team, which analyzes important data related to weather and elections. More about Camille Baker[ Šo ziņu laboja Lafter, 25 Jul 2024, 23:06:37 ]
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| Fandulis | | 25. Jul 2024, 23:18 |
#9422
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| Kopš: 29. Nov 2004
Ziņojumi: 13250
Braucu ar: sipisnīku pi vuškom
| Kamala vēl pat nav kandidāte, ja kas. Oficiāli. | | Offline | | |
| Lafter | | 25. Jul 2024, 23:25 |
#9423
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| Kopš: 23. Sep 2007
Ziņojumi: 27887
Braucu ar: wv
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25 Jul 2024, 23:18:11 @Fandulis rakstīja:
Kamala vēl pat nav kandidāte, ja kas. Oficiāli.
Es nēsmu teicis to. Bet cik liela iespēja ir, kad vina nebūs?
Es domāju niecīga
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| Fandulis | | 25. Jul 2024, 23:28 |
#9424
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| Kopš: 29. Nov 2004
Ziņojumi: 13250
Braucu ar: sipisnīku pi vuškom
| Garu penteri par varbūtībām. 
Skaidrs, ka būs un jau startā skaidrs, ka 50/50, bet vai tas ir būtiski?
Labi, moš kādam ir, bet man liekās ka pilnīgi p0her, tāpat ietekmēt neko nevaram. Un kā jau postēju, Tramps ir ķirzaka, sadirsīs visiem. Cik reizes viņš bija bankrots?
Mani vairāk uztrauc mūsu Progresīvais pauts, t.i., aizsardzības ministrs.[ Šo ziņu laboja Fandulis, 25 Jul 2024, 23:36:21 ] | | Offline | | |
| Lafter | | 25. Jul 2024, 23:39 |
#9425
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| Kopš: 23. Sep 2007
Ziņojumi: 27887
Braucu ar: wv
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25 Jul 2024, 23:28:46 @Fandulis rakstīja:
Garu penteri par varbūtībām.
Skaidrs, ka būs un jau startā skaidrs, ka 50/50, bet vai tas ir būtiski?
Labi, moš kādam ir, bet man liekās ka pilnīgi p0her, tāpat ietekmēt neko nevaram. Un kā jau postēju, Tramps ir ķirzaka, sadirsīs visiem. Cik reizes viņš bija bankrots?
Mani vairāk uztrauc mūsu Progresīvais pauts, t.i., aizsardzības ministrs.
Jā! Jo tas nozīmē tikai to, ka trampam ar lielu varbūtību nāksies ierīt Kamalas klitoru.
Tas ministrs ir dīvains čalis…. [ Šo ziņu laboja Lafter, 25 Jul 2024, 23:39:50 ]
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| Fandulis | | 25. Jul 2024, 23:41 |
#9426
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| Kopš: 29. Nov 2004
Ziņojumi: 13250
Braucu ar: sipisnīku pi vuškom
| Nebojā filmogrāfiju Trampam, porno un Viens pats mājās | | Offline | | |
| ruksis | | 26. Jul 2024, 01:05 |
#9427
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|  Kopš: 01. Sep 2017
Ziņojumi: 36
Braucu ar: behu
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25 Jul 2024, 23:25:21 @Lafter rakstīja:
25 Jul 2024, 23:18:11 @Fandulis rakstīja:
Kamala vēl pat nav kandidāte, ja kas. Oficiāli.
Es nēsmu teicis to. Bet cik liela iespēja ir, kad vina nebūs?
Es domāju niecīga
Tas ka Demokraatu partija saucas demokraatu partija ir hohma pati par sevi. Vinji nospljaujas uz pashu demokraatijas principu ka veeleetaaji izvirza kandidaatu. Vinji taa var dariit jo kontrolee mainstream media mashiinu, vinjus atbaslta korumpeetaakie megadonori kam protams interesee puppet government un pajaat uz partiju finanseeshanas ierobezhojumiem kaa tikko atklaajaas caur ActBlue notiek vienk mass fraud kur zem random cilveeku vaardiem un tuukstoshiem mazhaam trazsakcijaam megadonori nosuuta miljonus Demokratau partijai un sauc to par "grassroots effort". Taa kamala savaaca tos 83 miljonus usd tik iisaa laikaa. Bet padomaajiet logjiski, kandidaate par kuru nenobalsoja par 1000 cilveeku 2020 gadaa tagad peekshji sanjem tik milziigu atbastu
Aa un par tiem prograsiivajiem meesliem kas tiek stumti arii Latvijas valdiibaa, no kurienes tam visam kaajas aug? Tie pashi mega donori rausta arii eiropas puppetus. Vajag tikai parakt un Sorosa pretiigais purns izlien zem visiem shiem meesliem. | | Offline | | |
| kexxx | | 26. Jul 2024, 08:40 |
#9428
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|  Kopš: 12. Dec 2010
Ziņojumi: 12105
Braucu ar:
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26 Jul 2024, 01:05:59 @ruksis rakstīja:
25 Jul 2024, 23:25:21 @Lafter rakstīja:
25 Jul 2024, 23:18:11 @Fandulis rakstīja:
Kamala vēl pat nav kandidāte, ja kas. Oficiāli.
Es nēsmu teicis to. Bet cik liela iespēja ir, kad vina nebūs?
Es domāju niecīga
Tas ka Demokraatu partija saucas demokraatu partija ir hohma pati par sevi. Vinji nospljaujas uz pashu demokraatijas principu ka veeleetaaji izvirza kandidaatu. Vinji taa var dariit jo kontrolee mainstream media mashiinu, vinjus atbaslta korumpeetaakie megadonori kam protams interesee puppet government un pajaat uz partiju finanseeshanas ierobezhojumiem kaa tikko atklaajaas caur ActBlue notiek vienk mass fraud kur zem random cilveeku vaardiem un tuukstoshiem mazhaam trazsakcijaam megadonori nosuuta miljonus Demokratau partijai un sauc to par "grassroots effort". Taa kamala savaaca tos 83 miljonus usd tik iisaa laikaa. Bet padomaajiet logjiski, kandidaate par kuru nenobalsoja par 1000 cilveeku 2020 gadaa tagad peekshji sanjem tik milziigu atbastu
Aa un par tiem prograsiivajiem meesliem kas tiek stumti arii Latvijas valdiibaa, no kurienes tam visam kaajas aug? Tie pashi mega donori rausta arii eiropas puppetus. Vajag tikai parakt un Sorosa pretiigais purns izlien zem visiem shiem meesliem.
pastāstīsi, lūdzu, kā tieši Soross un ķirzakcilvēki iebīdīja progresīvos valdībā? ļoti gribētos dzirdēt  |  Online | | |
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| markelis | | 26. Jul 2024, 09:02 |
#9429
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|  Kopš: 28. Oct 2002
Ziņojumi: 12874
Braucu ar: eFku
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26 Jul 2024, 08:40:39 @kexxx rakstīja:
pastāstīsi, lūdzu, kā tieši Soross un ķirzakcilvēki iebīdīja progresīvos valdībā? ļoti gribētos dzirdēt
pff. ar "covid" cipiem. neviens sevi cienoshs antivakseris/mainstriim atmaskotaajs par vinjiem jau nebalsoja. vinji zin patiesiibu. | | Offline | | |
| pikc | | 26. Jul 2024, 12:28 |
#9430
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| Kopš: 12. Mar 2010
Ziņojumi: 452
Braucu ar:
| nu re, ir Obamas atbalsts tai Kamalai bībīsī | | Offline | | |
| Lafter | | 26. Jul 2024, 12:44 |
#9431
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| Kopš: 23. Sep 2007
Ziņojumi: 27887
Braucu ar: wv
| Bet smieklīgākais, kā nenoveicās Trump. Viņam kampaņas uzsvars bija, kad pretī ir vecs marazmātiķis Baidens kurš nevar būt prezidents. Tikko, kā bija nominēts- pēkšņi viņš pats ir vecs marazmātiķis pret jaunu nosacīti, enerģisku sievieti. Kura vēl nāk no minoritātēm, ja tā var teikt. Viņa plāns tagad strādā pret pašu.
Politiķa slapjais sapnis 
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| Ksneps | | 26. Jul 2024, 13:02 |
#9432
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| Kopš: 02. Sep 2005
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 1370
Braucu ar:
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26 Jul 2024, 12:44:28 @Lafter rakstīja:
Bet smieklīgākais, kā nenoveicās Trump. Viņam kampaņas uzsvars bija, kad pretī ir vecs marazmātiķis Baidens kurš nevar būt prezidents. Tikko, kā bija nominēts- pēkšņi viņš pats ir vecs marazmātiķis pret jaunu nosacīti, enerģisku sievieti. Kura vēl nāk no minoritātēm, ja tā var teikt. Viņa plāns tagad strādā pret pašu.
Politiķa slapjais sapnis
Kaut kā sajūtu līmenī liekas, ka tas viss bija stratēģiski pārdomāts. Vispirms republikāņi izvirza savu kandidātu (Trampu) un tikai tad demokrāti nominē savu kandidātu. Izvērtējot visus apstākļus. Reitingus, kā sokas kandidātam utt. | | Offline | | |
| kexxx | | 26. Jul 2024, 13:10 |
#9433
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| Kopš: 12. Dec 2010
Ziņojumi: 12105
Braucu ar:
| nabaga Adjiks, atkal Trampam draud izgāšanās | | Online | | |
| Lafter | | 26. Jul 2024, 13:15 |
#9434
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| Kopš: 23. Sep 2007
Ziņojumi: 27887
Braucu ar: wv
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26 Jul 2024, 13:02:36 @Ksneps rakstīja:
26 Jul 2024, 12:44:28 @Lafter rakstīja:
Bet smieklīgākais, kā nenoveicās Trump. Viņam kampaņas uzsvars bija, kad pretī ir vecs marazmātiķis Baidens kurš nevar būt prezidents. Tikko, kā bija nominēts- pēkšņi viņš pats ir vecs marazmātiķis pret jaunu nosacīti, enerģisku sievieti. Kura vēl nāk no minoritātēm, ja tā var teikt. Viņa plāns tagad strādā pret pašu.
Politiķa slapjais sapnis
Kaut kā sajūtu līmenī liekas, ka tas viss bija stratēģiski pārdomāts. Vispirms republikāņi izvirza savu kandidātu (Trampu) un tikai tad demokrāti nominē savu kandidātu. Izvērtējot visus apstākļus. Reitingus, kā sokas kandidātam utt.
Man jau arî sāk šķist- tur polittehnologi nostrādāja izcili. Burtiski šahs un mats
Pašu ar savām zālēm izārstēja- izcils gàjiens 
Republikāņiem manevra iespēju vairs nav
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| FAMAS | | 26. Jul 2024, 13:17 |
#9435
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|  Kopš: 09. Apr 2010
Ziņojumi: 1603
Braucu ar:
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26 Jul 2024, 12:44:28 @Lafter rakstīja:
Bet smieklīgākais, kā nenoveicās Trump. Viņam kampaņas uzsvars bija, kad pretī ir vecs marazmātiķis Baidens kurš nevar būt prezidents. Tikko, kā bija nominēts- pēkšņi viņš pats ir vecs marazmātiķis pret jaunu nosacīti, enerģisku sievieti. Kura vēl nāk no minoritātēm, ja tā var teikt. Viņa plāns tagad strādā pret pašu.
Politiķa slapjais sapnis
Īstenībā noveicās viņam  , no malas izskatās - aizšāva garām nu ok - tad plāns B Baidens iet pensijā, jāvirza Kamala.  [ Šo ziņu laboja FAMAS, 26 Jul 2024, 13:19:24 ] | | Offline | | |
| Rockstar | | 26. Jul 2024, 13:26 |
#9436
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| Kopš: 11. Dec 2004
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 3627
Braucu ar:
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26 Jul 2024, 08:40:39 @kexxx rakstīja:
pastāstīsi, lūdzu, kā tieši Soross un ķirzakcilvēki iebīdīja progresīvos valdībā? ļoti gribētos dzirdēt
Iesaku skatīties datorā un ar , un . patīt pa kadram interesējošajās vietās. Sejas pazīstamas, nenojautu, ka Linkaits arī sorosists
Soross rullē Latvijā
 Spied "Play", lai skatītos video! | | Offline | | |
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| Rockstar | | 26. Jul 2024, 13:29 |
#9437
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| Kopš: 11. Dec 2004
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 3627
Braucu ar:
| Redziet cik daudz jau šis fonds jau LV ir panācis. Mums jau ir uzlabota izglītības sistēma un open society
 Spied "Play", lai skatītos video! [ Šo ziņu laboja Rockstar, 26 Jul 2024, 13:36:13 ] | | Offline | | |
| ruksis | | 26. Jul 2024, 13:29 |
#9438
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| Kopš: 01. Sep 2017
Ziņojumi: 36
Braucu ar: behu
| Paaragri svinat uzvaru. Shis protams ir strateegjisks gaajiens ar taadu teiksim atklaatu uzdirsienu Demokraatu veeleetaajam, cilveeki balsoja par Baidenu bet vecaa ragana Pelosi piespieda Baidenu aizvaakties jo tas stulbens sapinaas pats savaas apenees. Tas viss nespeelee Demokraatiem par labu. Tu domaa ka Republikaanjiem nebuus pietiekoshi muniicijas ar ko vinju norakt?? Vinjas visa karjera ir principaa uzbuuveeta caur gultu. Par to vienkaarshi liidz shim pieklaajiigi kluseeja bet peec shii nesmukaa Demokraatu izgaajiena visa shii velja tiks mazgaata publiski. Te gan demokraatiem ir laba situaacija jo praktiski visi mediji ir vinju pakalpinji un melos atspeerushies luuk jau tagad visur tiek rakstiits ka nee nee Baidens nekad nav vinjai uzticeejis robezhu un imigraaciju.. bet tie tak ir meli
Vinji melo un melos uz katra solja bet tiem kam nav smadzenju turpinaas akli ticeet un priecaaties.
Priecaajieties bet prieki buus iisi.
 Spied "Play", lai skatītos video!
 Spied "Play", lai skatītos video!
[ Šo ziņu laboja ruksis, 26 Jul 2024, 13:50:15 ] | | Offline | | |
| ruksis | | 26. Jul 2024, 13:33 |
#9439
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| Kopš: 01. Sep 2017
Ziņojumi: 36
Braucu ar: behu
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26 Jul 2024, 12:44:28 @Lafter rakstīja:
Bet smieklīgākais, kā nenoveicās Trump. Viņam kampaņas uzsvars bija, kad pretī ir vecs marazmātiķis Baidens kurš nevar būt prezidents. Tikko, kā bija nominēts- pēkšņi viņš pats ir vecs marazmātiķis pret jaunu nosacīti, enerģisku sievieti. Kura vēl nāk no minoritātēm, ja tā var teikt. Viņa plāns tagad strādā pret pašu.
Politiķa slapjais sapnis
Ak energeejiska saki? Varbuut energjeetiska gultaa jo nu citaadi nevar izskaidrot kaapeec 4 gadus buudama VP bija klusa kaa pele neviens pat nezin ko vinja dariija!
Visa vinjas politiskaa karjera ir taapec ka vinja bija padauzinja augstaam aprindaam.
 Spied "Play", lai skatītos video! | | Offline | | |
| Samsasi | | 26. Jul 2024, 13:39 |
#9440
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|  Kopš: 01. Nov 2014
Ziņojumi: 4204
Braucu ar:
| cik es pa diagonāli atceros, tad viņa ir bijusi Cali generālprokurore... nez vai maukas tādos amatos liek? | | Offline | | |
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Moderatori: 968-jk, AV, BigArchi, BlackMagicWoman, Czars, GirtzB, Lafter, PERFS, RVR, SteelRat, VLD, linda, mrc, noisex, smudo
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